Artificial intelligence, the most exponential technology in history
An overview and statistics of exponential advances in AI-based technologies
Do you know Moore's Law?
Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend related to the microchip and computer processing industry. It was observed by Gordon E. Moore in 1965, and consists of the study that the number of chip transistors would increase by 100%, at the same cost, every 18 month period. This prophecy came true and ended up being named Moore's Law.
We can say that here was the beginning of what we call Exponential Innovation. We have several cases of exponential innovation in the digital world, some examples, of democratized use, are the qualities of cameras and smartphones. We can also see the exponential innovation of augmented reality technologies, 3D printers, IOTs, for example, which are becoming increasingly accessible and consumed. But what we have been following in the last 5 years of Artificial Intelligence technologies is an incomparable speed translated into some statistics:
1) Venture Capital Investments: total investment in Startups, in the world, in 2019, was US $ 295 million dollars, approximately 13% of this amount was destined to Artificial Intelligence Startups.
2) Forecast of economic growth in the world: according to analysis by the website Statista.com, the forecast of growth of the AI software market is 154% for 2020, equivalent to US $ 22.6 billion. As the data shows, this growth remains very high until 2025.
3) Results on successful projects: here it is difficult to choose which project to quote. A classic for Brazil is the Bradesco BIA project, which started in 2016 to implement a customer service chatbot, at the time they had 10,000 calls per day and an average of 10 minutes of waiting for the customer to be served. But the decision was to place Chatbot's interaction so that employees who served customers use, train and evaluate Chatbot's responses. In this first delivery of the BIA project, already with surprising results also to the end customer, the metrics were in 94% of the answers served by BIA, 85% of the employees rated their experience between 3 and 5 stars. In 2017, they implemented for customers, and followed with small deliveries, first service in the open area, then in the bank's logged area, they continued to implement skills (location of branches, credit offer, financial indexes ...) and interaction channels (WhatsApp, Facebook messenger, Google assistant ...). The curve was very exponential, look at the graph below:
In May 2019, the last time I saw the numbers for this project, there were 123mm of interactions, 95% of questions answered and 83% of ratings above 3 stars.
It is worth saying that this speed impresses and brings the urgency to start! Yes, because whoever starts first, and follows the right strategy of small short-term deliveries, quick learnings on the way, and a roadmap determined for a larger objective, can reach a growth speed that is difficult to reach by competitors.
This reminds me of an important factor, it is natural that the speed of an Artificial Intelligence project has a laborious start, with results below the ideal, it is a barrier to be overcome, a factor mentioned as “Dissimulation” in the framework of Peter Diamandis, known as the 6 Ds (theory found in his book Bold: Exponential opportunities - https://www.amazon.com.br/BOLD-Oportunidades-Exponencial-Transformar-Problemas/dp/855080598X):
Digitization - The first step is the digitization of a technology that until then was predominantly physical.
Concealment - In this initial phase, exponential technology goes through a period of concealed growth. The growth looks like zero, but what is happening is the duplication of small multiples (0.01, 0.02, 0.04, 0.08 ...) and, for this reason, the growth seems imperceptible.
Disruption - The technology reaches the "knee" of the exponential curve and growth accelerates. When this occurs, for example, 20 duplications are enough to bring the new technology to a growth of 1,000,000 times.
Dematerialization - Once technology becomes disruptive, it dematerializes. In other words, you don't have it in your hands as a physical object. GPS devices, cameras, contact books, notepads, scientific calculators ... the list of objects that have dematerialized in the form of apps on your smartphone is long.
Demonetization - At this point, new technologies demonetize traditional business models, which solved the same problem. Wikipedia demonetized physical encyclopedias, such as the unforgettable Barsa; LinkedIn demonetized newspaper job listings; Airbnb has demonetized major hotel chains. The examples are many.
Democratization - The final stage of the cycle is democratization. Technologies previously accessible to the privileged few are in the hands of a considerable part of humanity. Medium democratizes editorial publishing; YouTube, the production of audiovisual content; the Makerspaces, the manufacture. If you are a musician and have a notebook with software like GarageBand installed, you can record your album at very low costs and publish it for free on services like SoundCloud.
It is very important that the leader of the project and the digital transformation, knows how to deal with the initial phase and follow the vision of future gain, and again, have your strategy based on small deliveries that can already extract value.
I2AI has developed several courses for training these leaders, from knowledge of Artificial Intelligence Technologies, which is sufficient to inspire and conduct projects (you don't need to be technical to do them), to training to conduct the Digital Transformation strategy
About the author
Sócia-fundadora da I2AI – International Association of Artificial Intelligence, hoje atuo como Head de estratégia e marketing do grupo. Acumulo mais de 24 anos de experiência profissional, tendo trabalhado em diversos setores econômicos como varejo, financeiro, industrial e serviços. Sempre com foco no cliente e olhar empreendedor, convergindo minhas habilidades humanas e comunicativas, com as de lógica e analítica para buscar resultados de sucesso.
Já liderei muitas equipes multi-diciplinares e tenho a habilidade de potencializar os talentos para a construção coletiva. Reuno experiência em processos, planejamento estratégico, inteligência de mercado, marketing estratégico, produtos e canais de venda e compras e negociação, o que me permite olhar o negócio como um todo e encontrar as melhores soluções que beneficie a cadeia.
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